HONG KONG - Although facing economic uncertainty on the grandest of scales, China´s economy will enjoy robust growth of 8.6 percent in the coming year, well above the world average level of 1.9 percent, the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) predicted on its annual global research released Thursday.
According to the research entitled "When the wheels fall off", it forecast that China´s GDP growth rate will be 8.6 percent and 8. 8 percent in 2012 and 2013 respectively, falling from 8.9 percent and 10.4 percent in 2011 and 2010. By contrast, the world average growth in 2012 and 2013 is predicted to be only 1.9 percent and 2. 6 percent.
However, the research said that with falling inflation and property prices as well as the European crisis, China´s growth will further slow down in 2012. "This means that the major macro risk in China is quickly shifting from inflation to disinflation, calling for a more aggressive easing in policy going into next year," the research concluded.
HSBC economists believed that fiscal and monetary easing policies will be taken next year. These measures, together with continued investment in existing projects, will keep China´s GDP growth above 8 percent in the coming years, although the export will continue to shrink, the research argued.
As for the world economy, the research said the Eurozone crisis is still the predominant issue next year. It assumed that the Eurozone will survive yet much work still needs to be done.
"The European Central Bank needs to act much more aggressively and publicly in helping to ease strains in European sovereign debt markets and in the banking system," said the research.
It also suggested that balances of payments surplus and deficits need to be reduced to deliver lasting financial stability in the region.