2012 IAE Upsidehttps://www.ithacaenergy.com/uploads/20111019finalgsadevelopmentconceptselectoct2011.pdf
Looking at IAE upside in 2012 beyond expected Athena addition of approx of 5000 bopd I suggest the following upside if they occur will give an extra boost to our sp:
1. Page 19 of the link presentation indicates that IAE capital expenditures is based on only $85 bbl Brent conservatively. So clearly Brent should average, RBC indicates $107 for 2012, so we have a $20 plus upside to IAE intake to fund their projects. That should give IAE an extra $73M for 2012 than what IAE has conservatively budgeted for ($20 x 10,000 bopd x 365 = $73M)
2. Northern part of Athena should have upside and possibly boost production rate. I beleive that IAE will be watching well A2 for potential upside in the Athena. IAE seems very good to get every drop of oil from their wells example Beatrice etc
3. Greater Stella Area production estimates does not include Hurrican and Helios to add. Hurricane well drilling in Q1 2012.
4. Acquisition in 2012 I am quite sure.
5. Other IAE partnered wells such as Crathes.
I still believe that IAE is at risk of being taken out and would consider an offer forthcoming, but that IAE would not agree to any such offer until the IAE valuation is fully achieved and that really only comes with 25,000 bopd Stella production is priced in.
2. Greater Stella Area does