RE: RE: Brent 13% Gain for 2011 Well given that oil has never closed lower for the year except for 2008, and that Brent is closing 2011 at $107, then end of 2012 Brent will be higher, if 2011 Brent 13% gain repeats we should be around $120.
I have read numerous oil estimates from the brokerages, and believe that the end 2012 price will be on the higher side of those expectations, again I expect $120 end 2012.
The great point for IAE mentioned before is that they have based their capex for 2012 on $85 Brent, so even average of $115 is $30 greater x 10,000 x 365 days = $109M more for IAE in their capex revenue estimates.
I am closer with Crow on his sp estimates for the year.
So far imo, IAE has not priced in Athena production and has only been following the broader indexes, so a number of catalysts should drive IAE sp towards $4, perhaps more, in 2012:
-spikes in Brent pricing due to Mid East supply disruptions
- pricing in Athena production
- upside in Hurricane Q1 2012 drilling
- upside in Athena reserves
- positive general market conditions
Happy New Year!