Noble Iron Inc V.NIR.H

RE: Low volume

[Francesco1]

GRQ MAN, Thanks for the positive comments ... I have also enjoyed your posts since becoming a member of the NIR fan club. Low volume is indicative of a corrective wave in progress. After the runnup that we saw beginning in feb and ending in mar-april, we have been correcting in a 3 wave affair. It is completely normal for volume to contract during this period and is really a requirement. As you stated, volume during this recent rally is light. From the bottoms of corrections, the first wave in the rally phase (now) is always light. This is due to investors/traders lack of conviction after the correction that they just experienced. It also reflects fear, which almost always indicates that we are approaching the bottom of a stock. After we experience another small decline, the next rally will occur on much higher volume. This higher volume will convince those that have been waiting for lower prices that they better make their move, now. We will need this high volime to support the rally to the $4.88 area and above. The resistance points that we must watch are; $1.80 (the high of dec '98) $3.40 (the high of april '98) $4.88 (the all time high) $7.50 (based on a 1.62 Elliot wave multiple) (the rally in '98 times 1.62) Yes, I think that we have a very good shot to rally to the recent high at 3.40 before a pullback to the high $2.80 area. From there, we will probably rally to the old high at $4.88 fairly quickly. Then we would probably go sideways for a while with very little price retracement. After the $4.88 high, there is a small possibility that we could retrace back to the interim high back at $3.40. (no big deal) The $4.88 area would then provide a base for a new, higher range of rally that will probably take us to the $7.50 area. As an insurance policy, we must allow for a variation on the correction that has maybe a 20% chance of occuring. This would probably play out like this; The rally that we are seeing now could be a rally in a correction that would take us to the high $2 area ... where we are now. From here, we would pullback to the area below $1.50 to complete the correction. This would really only delay the bullish scenario that is probably playing out now, so I am not expecting it to happen. The important thing to remember is, that the $4.88 area will turn from a ceiling into a floor, probably within the next few months. Francesco