Could this be the Start? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-13/potash-cf-rise-on-speculation-u-s-understates-drought-damage.html
From what I understand, there is expectation of food crisis in coming years due to drought, flooding, increased population, less arable land, etc. Keep in mind, one of the benefits of Potash is that it makes plants more drought rsistant.
A last note, if oil goes up, Potash will go up as Ethanol production will increase - reminder of 2008 when oil spike caused Potash price spike due to increased Ethanol production.
Two main drivers for Potash:
1. Food crisis
2. High oil prices that forces more Ethanol production
Two main drivers for Ethiopia Potash:
1. Lower CAPEX and OPEX costs plus faster time to bring mines to pruduction due to mine type.
2. Location - transportation costs will be cheaper for Asians in addition to lower potash costs per tonne from Ethiopia.