Goodluck plays chess
Goodluck plays chess
I do not know anyone in Mart, and have no connections with anyone in Nigeria. The following is my analysis of what is going on in Nigeria. Take it for what it is worth. Remember, you paid nothing for this.
For starters, is Goodluck Jonathan an idiot or a genius? In a country with many, many poor, and a few very rich, how do you remove the single most important subsidy to the poor? Further, why do you it in the middle of a crisis with an Islamic fundamentalist group? The idea is stupid on the very face of it. Thus, it appears Goodluck is a bumbler, an idiot over his head. However, take a look at his biography. He has managed to maneuver to the presidency of one of the most populous countries in the world, a country with dozens of ethnic groups and two major religions that have not been comfortable with each other. No idiot accomplishes this. Sure enough, Goodluck is a chess player:
https://www.tribune.com.ng/sat/index.php/youth-achiever/5991-secret-of-my-success-as-chess-champion-efemuai-.html
So, what game is he playing? I believe it starts in Iran. Things are escalating there:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/13/us-iranian-ships-involved-in-incidents-in-strait-hormuz-1162153731/
It is widely accepted that Israel assassinated a Iranian nuclear scientist with a car bomb this week:
https://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2104372,00.html
Is war imminent?
https://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/01/04/war-imminent-in-straits-of-hormuz-200-a-barrel-oil/
How will this war turn out? Well, take a look at what happened in a 2002 war game, when the US general in charge of the Iranian side adopted the very tactics that Iran is appearing to use:
https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20080112/WIRE/801120362
The American side won, but only after magically refloating their sunk fleet and finishing the game.
It is generally understood that if war in the gulf breaks out, oil will quickly be at $200 a barrel. I suspect Goodluck knows this, and knows that tensions in the gulf are going to continue at a strained (at best) level for some time. Further, the rest of the world cannot tolerate any production stoppages from other oil exporting nations. Thus, the chess player thinks it is time for a gambit. A gambit in chess is when you give a piece away now for position and for the chance of a much larger gain in the future. Goodluck has apparently risked his presidency and a potential civil war to do something that appears to make no economic or political sense. Why?
I suspect that Goodluck knows that Nigeria, as a major oil exporter and one of the few countries on earth capable of increasing production, will not be allowed to have their oil exports stopped. The west will not allow it. Not with what could occur in the gulf. In fact, look for effort to be made this year to ramp up oil production in Nigeria as soon, and as much, as possible.
So why did Goodluck do this to the Nigerian people? I suspect that this move really has nothing to do with his own people--he is blackmailing the west. His stated purpose for this measure is to free up money for much needed infrastructure development. I could be very wrong, but I suspect that you are going to hear (or maybe not hear, but it will happen anyway!!) that Goodluck is going to turn the fuel subsidy into a 10 year phase-out (starting next year) and that either western governments or western companies are about to begin massive infrastructure projects in Nigeria. In the end, the people get their fuel subsidy back, and Goodluck gets money to build his infrastructure, greatly enhancing his political power base in the country. I believe Goodluck is blackmailing the west, and given what is going on in the gulf he is betting that the west will agree to whatever he wants. This is what I think he wants. Now, we will see how good of a chess player he actually is….
If I am right, Mart is going to get every opportunity it can handle over the next year, as will every oil driller in Nigeria that can increase production. And yes, I believe it is very possible the stock goes to $7-8 before the end of the year. In fact, rather than Nigeria becoming an unstable country, my guess is that the oil-consuming world will demand and ensure that Nigeria stays stable. Goodluck deliberately provoked this situation to gain concessions from the west--not from his own people.