RE: RE: buying activity today Can someone summarize all the signs available right now that a take over is immenent, or perhpas that it isnt?
i highly doubt the chinese will go hostile - the need a solid canadian partner (both TLM mgmt and canadian govt support) to make this work.
so really, if sinopec was to be taking over, they have to go the friendly way.
If I were John Manzoni (or the board in general, as they will have to approve this) - I would only sell in a friendly manner if:
a. We are at the ropes. If we dont make the sale we're going under anyways. - this is unlikely. yes, they have been slumping, but so is encana and alot of other companies. nothing that cant be fixed.
b. Sinopec is offering a deal ill shareholders would kill for. Seeing as we've had the $25 last year, a killer deal would have to be in the $35, which i dont see the chinese doing in a million years.
it could be a healthy mix of the above two points. yes, we are struggling and could use help in developing new projects. but we'll be back to $15 shortly, so $18 is not a fair price. $26 maybe?
ofcourse i would love to see option B as a shareholder : )
SCG