GREY:STTYF - Post by User
Comment by
mineplanner08on Jan 22, 2012 5:52pm
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Post# 19433355
RE: SND's New Presentation
RE: SND's New Presentation Comments:
- They're still using 4.50/mcf as the base case for nat gas when current prices are around half of that.
- A couple of projects have been delayed and now only the Gordon Creek gas project is coming online this year. Since the warrants are expiring this year, decent chance they expire worthless.
- 2013 will be a BIG year for SND with ALL of the remaining projects/upgrades now scheduled to come online.
- Assuming 2013 EV/CF of 2.8 is correct, commodity prices at least stay at current levels and the current production schedule is followed, we can realistically expect a 2-3 fold rise from current stock price near the end of 2013. Expect a nice jump every time a project comes online.
- Guaranteed cashflows are comforting but if a company goes bankrupt (I'm looking at you RDA) and SND takes ownership of an uneconomic mine, it's basically a writeoff. ie. The SID mine has a strip ratio of 16:1... Terrible! So far the Big Branch Mine has been where money goes to die. And then there is another RDA creditor out there to contend with. Fortunately, SND has a better project evaluation team now.