RE: RE: RE: RE: US GAS: Futures Rebound As Februar spec, I agree but I will play it until the proofs in the pudding... and so far the cuts are not enough. It was on it's way back down until the change in the back end forecast this morning (gfs talk), which I think helped to create todays rally along with expiration. Feb. may turn out to be the coldest month, but these back end forecasts have been wrong all yr.
The line in the sand today was $2.76 march technically, thats where it closed at 2:30. Sure it wouldn't surprise me to get a continuation of the rally monday morning which would tell me it might be on for another week.... where I would look to re-set my d position. But I have to go with what I see since it didn't close above 2.76 and held and added. If I'm wrong I have no problem and will just get a better d positon and I think we test $2.25 again by late feb... as u know demand sucks for the march contract by late feb... not to mention a glut that has to be wiped out asap with max. storage looming.
If one of the majors is only supposedly going to cut 0.5/bcf a day at $2.25 ng, then how much cuts are left? And who's left to really make an impact. There are so many little companies tied to their leases and variable costs, loans.. they have to keep it moving... you know the jig.
What is failed to be discussed here is the planned switching from coal to ng... that might be the saviour for ng, but not today IMO.
we c.