Keep Your Cool Friedland has a personal position of 14% of IVN - if that's not motivation to get a good price for IVN's shares, what is?
RioT and any other buyer of IVN or its OT assets is looking at forward cashflow and valuation - the difficulty is in forward pricing all of metals prices, costs of mining and processing, the time to production ... a myriad of uncertainties, not least of which is to what extent will the higher-grade ore found at Hugo North be extended either at depth or along strike.
I'm guessing the committment to build a smelter looms large in the forward planning, and RioT needs a strategic major partner for both that, and to develop another mine at Heruga and perhaps north of Hugo North on the JV if the deposit continues at good grades somewhere along the 10 km or so to the Northern JV border and IVN/BHP's Ulan Khud showings. IVN's OT assets offert the window to bring in another participant with the capital resources to share funding of major expansion of the project. Particularly so if ETG strikes a deposit on their adjoining ground over which IVN holds a ROFR.
The added complexity and reason it is unlikely there will be any unsolicited bids is the necessity of agreement of the Mongolians - so basically 4 parties need to sit down and agree on a complicated deal. Personally, I'm happy to have RF in there pitching on behalf of the remaining 49% sharehokders.
This sin;t a value through promotion or rhetoric situation ... the value will come from hard-headed closed door negotiations leading to an agreement recommended by RF, the IVN BofD, and aceptable to RioT and the Mongolian government.
If you believe in the value of the project as a business proposition, next question is do you have confidence in RF and the independent directors? Third question, can you estimate the probable time and likelihood of an agreement? Because RioT now has so much capital tied up, they will be aggressive to try and move forward as quickly as possible IMO, and will press their Mongolians counterparts for cooperation.
I think there is a good upside premium probable form the current S/P - I don't understand the gnashing of teeth - either you think the proposition favours you, or sell and move on. Will buyers at $28 ever see more? Depends - exploration is ongoing, negotiations are ongoing. How much would Chinalco, for instance, be willing to pay for a strategic reserve like OT? Is that acceptable to Mongolia?
I'm bullish - the stock prices of the miners seem laz and beaten down by euro-worries and general nearish sentiments, IVN no different.
CG