Severely mispriced At only $3.10 per share, price reaction is pretty disappointing so far. Big volume shows there's lots who believe you should sell on news. They may be proven correct, especially as Portugal 10 year bonds slice thru 15%, but TOL looks severely mispriced.
At 2000 barrels per day, if you apply the Crescent Point - WSX metrics of almost $110,000 per daily barrel, you get a justifiable take-out value of $220,000,000 or about $4.70 per share for 47 million fully diluted shares.
Lots of land, lots of tax shields. Gotta think that there's plenty of gas companies who are going to be on their bellies come Q2 if they're not already there, puking at the reality of $2.25 AECO pricing. Maybe it would occur to one of them that the opportunities TOL has could go a long way to settling an upset stomach. Could offer a 50% premium and still be getting a reasonable deal.