TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
Motownwingon Feb 03, 2012 10:41am
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Post# 19485363
RE: RE: Over-allotment to stabilize (motownwing)
RE: RE: Over-allotment to stabilize (motownwing) I researched the topic trying to understand the current trading pattern. Since the BD announcement, aaa has been trading in a very very tight range almost always between 0.79 and 0.81. Every day, from pre-market to close, you find on level II over 300000 shares on the bid @ 0.79 and over 300000 shares on the ask @ 0.81. The sp is controlled and cannot go up or down. How long will it last and which direction will it take when "normal" trading resumes. On the positive side, bought deals are usually done at a siginificant discount, the underwriters resell the shares to their customers with the clear expectation that the sp will go up after the bough deal with news to be released by company. This is not always the case though, the last bought deals for aaa were done at 1.55 - 1.60$. On the negative, it seems that the underwriters (led by Dundee) currently need to support the sp and are buying a lot (possibly using the over-allotment shares that they sold and are now buying back (refer to scheme explained yesterday). My take is that in the short term aaa seems to be under heavy sell pressure. Long term, the question is: do you still believe in the story? If you do, you can buy as many shares as you want or can at 0.80$, there is an endless supply. A new house on the sell side this morning, MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier Inc from Montreal sold 363500 shares to ANON at 10:10 AM. I have never heard of them. Also, note that Fraser MacKenzie just lowered their target this morning from 1.60 to 1.40$. GLTA, we will need it. I am long by the way.