Sleep Well Longs!! After reading this comparison you should feel even more comfortable with your investment in Allana....Verde Potash (Brazil) put out its PEA Thursday…and when you compare similar factors I think you would agree that AAA should not have a market cap of $175 million…and Verde with a current market cap of $225 million. In the following comparison I do not apply taxes/tariffs/fees as I do not know what they are for Brazil.
I have not applied shares outstanding at time of production as Verde is using Inferred Resource estimates without an NI Resource Estimate to work from. Allana also has $80m in the bank and is doing the BFS. So, the comparison is up to comparative known variables. The most telling number is the difference in estimated Operating Costs, $90 versus $263 per ton….this is very material and dramatically separates the two companies on a go forward financial basis…..Just to note Verde is trading at a market cap of $50 million more than Allana today?
AAA: $480 per ton KCL - $90 opex per ton = $390 net operating income per ton x 1 m tons KCL = $390 m – long term debt $94 m per year = Allana $300 million net operating income (less taxes/tariffs/fees)
(Allana Capex Model: (60% debt and 40% equity) $796m capex x 60% = $477m x 10% interest rate = $47 m interest + $47 m principal repayment = $94 m per year debt servicing)
Using a comparative model for Verde Potash:
NPK: $480 per ton KCL - $263 opex per ton = $217 net operating income per ton x 1 m tons KCL = $217m – long term debt of $92m per year = Verde $125 million net operating income (less taxes/tariffs/fees)
Verde Capex Model: (60% debt and 40% equity) $766m capex x 60% = $460m x 10% interest rate = $46 m interest + $46 m principal repayment = $92 m per year debt servicing)
Allana NPV estimated at $2.36 billion with a 10% discount rate on 1 m ton mine Verde NPV estimated at
.75 billion with a 10% discount rate on 1 m ton mine
$2.36 billion NPV for AAA –
.75 billion NPV Verde = $1.6 billion dollar Advantage Allana
$263 verde opex - $90 allana opex = $173 per ton difference in opex costs x 1m tons per year = $173 million per year Advantage Allana
PEA price for KCL per ton $539 vs $500 ($39 x 0.6m tons = $23 million Advantage Allana)
Verde IRR at 23% and Allana IRR at 36.8% or = 13.8% IRR Advantage Allana Verde Capex estimated at 2,258.7 million for the 3 mtpy operation OR $752 million for 1 million ton mine with start up in 2015
- Allana’s estimated Capex at $796m for 1 m ton mine per year with start up by end of 2014.;
- After-tax Internal Rate of Return of 36.8%;
- Total development capital expenditures including mining, processing facilities, port and logistics infrastructure ("CAPEX") of US $796 million;
- Total operating expenditures ("OPEX") on a per tonne basis (including production, transportation/handling, port, loading costs) FOB on the Vessel of US $90.54
- Ercosplan uses $500 per ton price for KCL 2013
- Allana’s PEA is based on Annual Production of 1 million tons of MOP per year. After Tax NPV @10% discount rate = $2.36 billion dollars or $1.85 billion dollars using @12% discount rate. Using solution mining and potential to expand production to two million tons per year of MOP;
For Verde what happens if the global price of potash drops to $400 per ton or even $350 per ton ..and you have ongoing Operating Costs of $263 and then what do you have left to service your Capex Debt Loans??? They use a 100% Equity Financing Model….but in the real world it will likely be nearer 50% debt and 50% new equity shares.
- Current $225 m market cap (and quite a drop) after the release of their PEA with the following facts attached. It appears the market was NOT happy with the numbers…and if my eyes are correct it is the Opex number of ….yes….$263 per ton ongoing!!!
- And the PEA uses $539 per ton price for KCL…a tad high based on what we know!!
- 0.6 m tons per year at Opex costs per ton of $263... "We believe that the estimated operating expenses ("Opex") presented in the PEA are competitive with the world's lowest cost potash producers for buyers in Brazil when importation and distribution costs are included.
- Capex of $654 m for 0.6m tons and Capex of $2.3 Billion for 3 million ton mine…or $766 m for a 1.0m tons per year.
- $2.2 billion NPV assigned at 3 m ton mine and a 9 year ramp up timeframe…IRR/Internal Rate of Return of 23%. Estimated after tax Net Present Value ("NPV"), using a 10% discount rate, of US$ 2,258.7 million for the 3 mtpy operation.
Verde’s PEA moves it to KCL production and halt to Thermo Potash until 2015…this is a big deal and what separated them from the rest… AND their PEA is using Inferred Mineral Resources….not even Measured or Indicated….WOW…
In view of the results of the PEA for KCl, Verde intends to focus its efforts on a KCl product and has therefore decided to temporarily suspend its ongoing feasibility study work on ThermoPotash. Verde currently expects that it would resume the feasibility study on ThermoPotash once it completed the proposed Phase 1 of KCl production, anticipated to be in 2015. ThermoPotash registration with the Ministry of Agriculture will continue and is expected to be achieved in the coming months. The scenarios presented in the PEA are preliminary in nature and make use of Inferred Mineral Resources that are considered too speculative geologically to have economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as Mineral Reserves. Mineral Resources which are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability.
Verde Announces Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Production of Conventional Potash
Initial Capex of US$ 654.1 million and initial Opex of US$ 263.23 per tonne for 0.6 million tonnes per year
TORONTO, Jan. 31, 2012 /CNW/ - Verde Potash Plc (TSX-V: NPK)
The PEA evaluated the technical and financial aspects of two different scenarios. The first scenario has an initial production of 0.6 million tonnes per year ("mtpy") increasing to 3 mtpy of KCl, with production growth financed largely from anticipated internal cash flow.