RE: Credit rating, what if You are exactly right. If Yellow had simply paid off MTNs and showed strong intention to work its way through these problems, the market would not have sold them off. The fact is that Yellow took steps consistent with retrenchment and default. The market saw it for what it was.
Yes, they can still work their way out. Each person will assign their own probability of this. My assessment is 5%, and that is based on three hours of real work with real numbers, and a detailed credit maturity model. A person I know who is a credit analyst says his number is 2%. So your number is 50%? And Bradford's number is 100%? Okay. :)