RE: Pay back $236mil now Lestat - my opinion is that Yellow is preparing a war chest for some good reason. It may be nothing more then the new finance committee saying to lock down a big portion of their LOC while they can. I'd bet they already know internally what Janaury results look like but I'm not sure they knew that when the made the drawdown.
If things turn out to be tighter than you project, I expect they will want their war chest at the ready and as long as they are not in default then they can't be petitioned into bankruptcy. If they end up breaching the covenants with the bank and the bank calls the loan it could get ugly. It will certainly mean they didn't play nice with the banks (agaiin) and that will make for a very hard road ahead. I expect survival right now is more important than the relaionship with the banks. If it turns out you are right and they don't need all this liquidity, then the banks can enjoy the interest income. I, for one, hope they don't need it.
BTW, Yellow was in a very poor bargaining position when the made the last agreement with the banks as they had breached a covenant. I expect they would have agreed to anything the banks put on the table at that time as they would have had little choice.
I suspect that the banks were watching closely and advised Yellow that the covenant had been breached. I believe that concides with the NCIB activity stopping. Then, when when the Trader deal closed the banks used their strong bargaining position to reduce their exposure.