RE: What's it gonna take? I believe that if New York State moves ahead with fracking, Quebec will follow suit. Also, once the provincial elections are out of the way (2013?) the newly elected party will most probably move ahead with the O&G development in Quebec, which as we know, means fracking. By then the final SEA report with recommendations will be out.
Here is the relevant info from Wiki on the next elections in Quebec:
"no assembly may continue for longer than five years from the return of the writs, which would have been in the days following the December 8, 2008, election, making an election probable for 2013."
There is a long history of mining in Quebec. Although Quebecers like to see themselves as environmentally aware, and are highly emotional in their political responses, I believe that ultimately, the environmental considerations will be dealt with and the potential economic benefits of having and O&G seoctor in Quebec will determine development.
Remember, this is the province that, after 20 years of hot-headed debate on the merits of secession from Canada, eventually lost interest in the issue. The practical side eventually won out over emotionaiism. Just my humble opinion.
Best,
Vlad
P.S. Hoping for a share pop to $1 on Monday with 4th quarter results tomorrow