RE: EPS estimate : mixed version Gold01, it´s really fun, playing around with all these numbers, even if it´s just theory.
Interesting to see, that just tweaking one or two variables have quite a big effect on the result.
Your comment about not including expenditures in the EPS calculation is accepted. It was an error on my part, because I thought that this was covered by the 50% of cash flow being used for drilling, expansion of mill and general admin. But that´s a different area and shouldn´t have been mixed-up.
So let me calculate a mixture of both our views and see what the result is, just for fun:
EPS estimation for the year 2013 (all figures for 49% XBR):
$ 16,900,000 revenue (30.400 tonnes @ $ 556 for Gold & Silver)
- $ 4,600,000 OpEx (30.400 tonnes @ $ 150 / tonne)
- $ 2,000,000 depreciation, exploration, administration, financial expenditures
= $ 10,300,00 EBT
- $ 0,00 tax (off-set by accrued losses for the "foreseeable future" (TG))
= $ 10,300 total net earnings
= $ .108 EPS (based on 95M shares fully diluted)
Share price target (end of 2013) based on 10x earnings multiple (industry standard) : $ 1.08 (upps!)
Price potential: 637% (based on a buy @ .17)
Even with 30% tax deduction, we would be looking at EPS of $ 0.076 and a target price of $ 0.76 (= potential 447%).
So we would look at a minimum 4-bagger and possible 6-bagger from the sub-
.20 range.
Not bad for the start. Hope, Tim can pull this off in 2012 !
FANTOMAS