World Kinect Corp V.INT

Projected Price of INT Shares Going Forward

[BumblebeeRR]

As a follow up to my earlier post tonight on my projections for Ortsbo user numbers, I have put together a couple other tables that translate (pardon the pun) future user numbers into share value for INT shareholders.  There are two tables ... one table uses the projected numbers based on linear growth, and the other table uses the projected numbers based on exponential growth. 

I have calculated the possible share price potentials based on various scenarios for $ / user valuation.  This allows a comparison to other social media companies.  For each $ / user scenario, I post two share price valuations.  "VALUE TO INT CORP" is what the book value of Ortsbo holdings would be to INT corporation on a per share basis.  "VALUE TO CURRENT SHAREHOLDER" would be the value of an INT share to a current shareholder because it takes into account the special dividend you will receive (the difference between the two columns would be the value per share of the special dividend).  As long as you own shares prior to the yet-to-be-announced dividend cutoff date, this is what each of your INT shares would be worth (in terms of book value, not necessarily market value, so keep that in mind).  If people buy INT shares after the special dividend cut-off date, then the Ortsbo contribution to those INT shares would be the value listed in the "VALUE TO INT CORP" column.  Note that these valuations do not give INT any credit for cash holdings or any of their other products (IttiBitti, AdTaffy, etc.) ... these numbers relate only the value of Ortsbo holdings.

I calculated the numbers assuming the Private Placement for Ortsbo would raise the targetd $30M, resulting in the addition of 4.3M shares to the Ortsbo O/S share count.  I used a value of 322.4M shares O/S for INT (the most up-to-date share count information I had). 

I chose the various $ / user valuations for various reasons.  $2.27 is roughly what we are being evaluated at now, provided the Ortsbo transaction occurs according to today's news release.  $5/user was what we used to be valued at, before the new user numbers were released.  $20/user is comparable to the valuation of Pandora, and $30/user would be a comparable valuation to Zynga (on a $/user basis) [according to Salman Partners coverage report]. 

I hope these tables help some folks get a better idea of what valuations are possible.  Please note that I am not predicting Ortsbo will receive any of these higher valuations like $30 / user ... these values have just been used for illustration/comparison purposes. 

BUMBLEBEE

 

		$2.28 / User		$5.00 / User		$10.00 / User		$20.00 / User		$30.00 / User
Month	Projected Users	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to
	(Linear)	INT Corp	Current	INT Corp	Current	INT Corp	Current	INT Corp	Current	INT Corp	Current
			Shareholder		Shareholder		Shareholder		Shareholder		Shareholder
February	107	0.44	0.65	0.96	1.43	1.92	2.86	3.83	5.72	5.75	8.58
March	115	0.47	0.70	1.03	1.53	2.06	3.07	4.11	6.14	6.17	9.20
April	127	0.52	0.78	1.14	1.70	2.28	3.41	4.56	6.81	6.85	10.22
May	140	0.57	0.85	1.25	1.87	2.51	3.75	5.02	7.49	7.53	11.24
June	153	0.62	0.93	1.37	2.04	2.74	4.08	5.47	8.17	8.21	12.25
July	165	0.67	1.01	1.48	2.21	2.96	4.42	5.93	8.84	8.89	13.27
August	178	0.73	1.08	1.59	2.38	3.19	4.76	6.38	9.52	9.57	14.28
September	191	0.78	1.16	1.71	2.55	3.42	5.10	6.83	10.20	10.25	15.30
October	203	0.83	1.24	1.82	2.72	3.64	5.44	7.29	10.88	10.93	16.31
November	216	0.88	1.32	1.94	2.89	3.87	5.78	7.74	11.55	11.61	17.33
December	229	0.93	1.39	2.05	3.06	4.10	6.11	8.19	12.23	12.29	18.34

 

 

		$2.28 / User		$5.00 / User		$10.00 / User		$20.00 / User		$30.00 / User
Month	Projected Users	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to	Value to
	Exponential	INT Corp	Current	INT Corp	Current	INT Corp	Current	INT Corp	Current	INT Corp	Current
			Shareholder		Shareholder		Shareholder		Shareholder		Shareholder
February	107	0.44	0.65	0.96	1.43	1.92	2.86	3.83	5.72	5.75	8.58
March	135	0.55	0.82	1.21	1.80	2.42	3.61	4.83	7.22	7.25	10.82
April	172	0.70	1.04	1.54	2.29	3.07	4.59	6.15	9.17	9.22	13.76
May	218	0.89	1.33	1.95	2.91	3.91	5.83	7.81	11.66	11.72	17.49
June	277	1.13	1.69	2.48	3.71	4.96	7.41	9.93	14.82	14.89	22.23
July	352	1.44	2.14	3.16	4.71	6.31	9.42	12.62	18.84	18.93	28.26
August	448	1.83	2.73	4.01	5.99	8.02	11.97	16.04	23.95	24.07	35.92
September	569	2.32	3.46	5.10	7.61	10.20	15.22	20.39	30.44	30.59	45.66
October	724	2.95	4.40	6.48	9.67	12.96	19.35	25.92	38.69	38.88	58.04
November	920	3.75	5.60	8.24	12.29	16.48	24.59	32.95	49.18	49.43	73.77
December	1169	4.77	7.12	10.47	15.63	20.94	31.26	41.88	62.51	62.83	93.77