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First Uranium Corporation T.FIU



TSX:FIU - Post by User

Post by Critical_Masson Mar 03, 2012 3:42pm
160 Views
Post# 19622619

The numbers on our options

The numbers on our options
                   
Assumptions                  
Conversion price = 0.20                
MWS Earnings = 60 million a year at current production and gold prices        
                   
  Option 1 = Vote No to both deals and be diluted   Option 2 Sell Ezulwami and buy back as many notes as possible before they convert Option 3 =Accept AGA deal
                 
Assumptions and comments The 443.3 million NAV for MWS is from RBC's dec number. I took the current maked down FIU NAV for Ezulwini from the last report.  A likely better non distressed value then the 70m currently offerred, but still conservative especially if we can actually get it producing profitably with a lower royalty rate, reduced interest after the dilution and new mine plan Assume we can buy back 80m at 87.5/100 par.  We will realize a gain on this of 10m Not bad on the surface, but I reject this option because it leaves us with a money losing mine and no working capital. So the numbers arnt accurate as there will be dilution resulting not considered
  We Still need working capital, but not much.            
                   
  Option 1 Vote NO   Option 2 Sell EZ, buy notes Option 3  Sell MWS  
    MWS 10x P/E 8x P/E   MWS 10x P/E 8x P/E      
                   
  Using RBC NAV Using 10x P/E Using 8x P/E Using RBC NAV Using 10x P/E Using 8x P/E      
Ezulwini $100 $100.00 $100.00 0 0 0 100    
MWS $443.30 $600.00 $480.00 443.9 600 480 0    
Total $543.30 $700.00 $580.00 443.9 600 480 100    
                   
NAV- Debt= Enterprise value  $375.60 $532.30 $412.30 276.2 432.3 312.3 100    
Gain on Note retirement       10 10 10 0    
.=Enterprise value/share afterwards
.38

.54

.42

.49

.75

.55
0.42    
                   
Converting debt $150.00     70 70 70 0    
Current Shares 237.90 237.90 237.90 237.90 237.90 237.90 237.90    
Shares issued 750.00 750.00 750.00 350.00 350.00 350.00 0    
Remaining debt 167.7 167.7 167.7 167.7 167.7 167.7 0    
                   
Total Shares in each option 987.90 987.5 987.5 587.9 587.9 587.9 237.90    
                   
          Option 4 = Accept both deals.    
RBC Global gold Average current P/E multiple from lates weekly gold tables   25c minus 10m loan from Gold One.  Which is around 4c.  So 21 c if we are lucky and there are no escrow charges.    
  2011 2012 2013      
Tier 2 19.8 13.4 9.7      
Tier 3 24.6 10.5 5.9      
            No thank you!!!      

 

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