RE: Some Reality Checks: STVP - I agree with you 100%. Let's review the valuations of Eagle Shallow, Jaguar, and Eagle Deep.
On Sept- 09-2011, Tudor, Pickering, and Holt carried a US $6.20/boe valuation on Zaedyus - which they believe is a 1.5 boe prospect. Now to apply Tudor, Pickering, and Holt's model to CGX - under a success case where post-drill results meet or exceed P50 expectations.
If anyone has any additional comments - please let me know. Note, until a discovery is made - everything is under dispute.
EAGLE SHALLOW: US $6.2/boe valuation on Eagle Shallow based on a P50 300mmboe propsect size. CGX's current 100% interest in Eagle would equate to US $1.86B, or $5.40 per CGX share on a fully dilluted basis.
JAGUAR: US $6.2/boe valuation on Jaguar based on a 1,500mmboe prospect size. (Note that Tudor, Pickering, and Holt carry a 1.50 boe for Eagle Deep and Zaedyus as these South American fan systems are anticipated to possibly be 3x larger than Jubilee). CGX's current 25% interest in Jaguar would equate to US $2.325B, or $6.75 per CGX share on a fully dilluted basis.
EAGLE DEEP: US $6.2/boe valuation on Eagle Deep based on a 2,500mmboe prospect size. CGX's current 100% interest in Eagle Deep would equate to US $15.5B, or $45.06 per CGX share on a fully dilluted basis.
OTHER LEADS / PROSPECTS: CGX has not assigned any numbers to its potential Maastrichtian leads within the Corentyne Block (3D results pending). Moreover, several other leads have showed up on CGX's Annex block (2D) which also have not been assigned any prospective numbers. If any of these other leads / prospects are advanced through drilling and a discovery is made (at least 1/5 the size of Jaguar - i.e. 300mmboe) each discovery could be worth an additional US $ 1.86B to CGX, or $ 5.41 per CGX share. Of course this would be under the assumption CGX keeps its 100% interest on Corentyne and Annex.