RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: BID $22.45 for the C preferred Throwingup: In considering the short position, you are looking at one side of the equation -- the shorts reported on the TSX. There were more dynamics to it then you are describing, even on the TSX, but I'll agree that the shorts reported on the TSX haven't been that dramatic.
Where the interesting dynamic has been is on the US side via YLWPF. By far, most of the short position originated there and historical reports show just how large the short position got.
Shares on loan, which give a fairly accurate representation of the short positions have also been very interesting. Last Aug, there were a total of 140,000,000 shares on loan against YLO/YLWPF. This number dropped to 50,000,000 or so by late fall and shortly after, DataExplorers.com stopped reporting the short position with their public service.
There is no question that there has been some significant short activity against this stock and that it has played an important role in trading.
However, does the fact that most of the shorts have now covered automatically mean they are now going to become buyers and chase the price back up to where it was. No, it doesn't. The initial poster is definitely in dream land on that front. If the company does avert insolvency or debt restructuring that wipes out shareholders, there is definitely some upside. However, the SP recovery, if it happens, isn't going to be based on shorts switching to the long side and driving the price. There will certainly be some trading games but I tend to think it's going to up and down for a while with traders chasing it around over a smallish range, making profits at the expense of those who get overly optimistic every time the stock shows some rebound as well as those rushing for the exits every time it seems like the company might be in its death throes.
Mark