RE: Article: Algonquin moving in to US wind market Interesting article... thanks... most interesting was this:
On the face of it, 480 megawatts at $888-million comes out to $1.85-million a megawatt,” Mr. Tharp said. “It looks quite good.”
We have 165MW of producing capapcity. At $1.85MM / MW, this would value our assets (producing only) at $305MM. $305MM/ 62MM outstanding shares equals a comparable take out value of $4.92 per share.
Anybody still disagreeing that the 2.50 offer for the whole company was a "low ball offer"?
I have spoken to Jeff and Lawrence rather extensively. I questioned why they would not release something when they found out the Southern Edison shutdown would delay the commissioning in order to put a floor on the SP, and essentially deflect blame on the 2 week miss of their completion target.
The vibe I get is that they feel that utility shutdowns and various small delays aren't newsworthy as they happen all the time. I agree with them in principle for once the project is already in production, but we agreed to disagree when it came to the startup target date, which I think is an important company milestone.
Jeff is very forward looking and sees the stock much higher in a years time (he alluded to a dollar higher easy), and I don't think the path it takes to get there really matters all that much to him. Which granted, they are busy negotiating Yabuoca and other more pressing issues that will eventually buoy our bottom line.
There is also still some manipulation of the SP, which is an inherent risk with being mostly institutionally owned. The private placement that just closed at $2 was about $5mm less than what the buyer wanted. They consequently traded the shares down to accumulate some more.
These hedge funds have a 1-1.5 year time horizon normally and the good news is that they are all long and all want to make money.
With the string of upcoming news, even they won't be able to suppress the price and we will see a sharp increase when the grant and Q2 results are in (even if there will have been slightly less power produced than if Windstar was commisionned on time).
The chart will just show a deeper V for the last coupld of months but will end up exactly where we all want it to go...
GLTA
SuLtAn