RE: Ocean Saratoga Timeline Hollywood44 -
In terms of timelines there probably will be some critical pieces of information making its way out as the well continues to deepen. In my opinion, there are several pieces of information that I would be on the look out for:
1. Tullow releases their annual results this week - Wednesday, March 14. Maybe we will get some insight on this conference call...
2. As we all know CGX's horseshoe well was drilled on the Guyana shelf some time ago - which encountered good quality sands but no potential trapping / sealing mechanism. Eagle Shallow is drilling, not on the shelf, but hopefully along the "abrupt margin" (i.e. a zone of sediments deposited at the bottom of the continental shelf's downward slope). CGX should be able to verify certain key differences early in the drilling of Eagle Shallow such as drilling through clay, marls, etc. Noticing these differences early on would be a positive indicator to confirm they are not on the shelf, but possibly along the "abrupt-margin", which gives hopes to the stratigraphic play - like Tullow's Jubilee and Zaedyus.
3. Before the Eagle Tertiary / Eocene target is reached - CGX could encounter an an over pressured zone (just like Shell's Abary-1 encoutered) - possibly around 2,700 meters. This would be a great indicator of a potential working trap / seal for Eagle Shallow.
4. According to the CGX Reserve Report dated Feb-01-2010 - it appears the target depth of Eagle Tertiary / Eocene is 3,050 meters. If CGX encounters any hydrocarbon bearing zones at this depth it will likely be detected via LWD. If hydrocarbon bearing intervals are detected via LWD - CGX would likely run wireline logs to further evaluate / confirm. If positive results, CGX woud release news immediately - even though the well has not reached a TD of 4,250m.
5. After the first target is reached - CGX will likely set casing and deepen the well to test the Maastrichtian target (around 4,000 meters). Again, CGX should be able to detect hydrocarbon bearing zones via LWD, if present. Wireline logs could be deployed after LWD detection.
Where is CGX at the moment - who knows... Will shareholders hear about a potential JV before news is released - don't know. However, I would think CGX is probably no more than 3 weeks away from penetrating their first target - Teritery / Eocene with possible news right around the corner.