RE: RE: Explaining RIM's success in India Considering that the Indian and Chinese markets are massive, it would be nice if the street gave RIM some credit for how well they perform there. As well, RIM is still the big player in many European countries although they have been coughing up some market share on the Continent. Unfortunately, the only market that these myopic analysts care about is the US market....and considering how much revenue is generated from the American market, I guess it's not a big surprise. RIM is selling cheaper handsets to emerging markets than is available here and their profit margins just aren't as attractive in countries like India, where the majority of the population can't afford a Blackberry. But, if you can't afford a Blackberry, you definitely can't afford an IPhone. Cheap Android phones are the biggest threat to RIM in those markets, but as long as Blackberries are as data-efficient as they are, they still have an advantage. Hopefully, the new BB10 phones will not sacrifice too much data efficiency for pretty lights and features that are fun for 5 minutes and then forgotten about. As for RIM's Q4 results, I don't think RIM will warn ahead of the results - we all know Q4 isn't going to be a banner quarter and RIM's guidance wasn't exciting to begin with. If RIM hits the low end of the guidance, that's still a respectable quarter and keeps RIM afloat that much longer until the next gen handsets are out. It won't matter what RIM reports - already you have an analyst who was warning that RIM will miss expectations, even though his version of RIM "missing expectations" was coming in at the low end of the guidance. Curious how that counts as missing expecations! So, in that type of snakepit, it won't matter what RIM reports unless they somehow manage to beat expectations big, which I don't think any sane rational person believes is going to happen either. The sad things is that even if RIM did beat, the usual suspects will still do everything they can to undermine the numbers, so guys, get used to it. Until BB10 comes out (and the usual suspects will say it's too late - no matter when it comes out), we won't have any friends in the investing media.
Where I work, we all use Blackberries. A few guys have IPhones or Android handsets for personal use, but you'd be surprised at how many people are waiting for the BB10 models. I know I was because I thought I was the only person in my office who cared...lol. Everything is riding on BB10 for RIM now. If BB10 fails, RIM will be broken up or acquired. I don't think BB10 will fail but it might take some time to win back the US market. The lacklustre new IPad helps but hope that Apple doesn't re-design IOS before BB10 is out. You can be sure Apple knows that once BB10 is out, IOS will be the old man of the OSs and they need something to compete with their flashier competition.
Good luck guys...March 29 will be an interesting day, but don't expect love from the media regardless of what happens!