A major bull in the making If you look at the charts, you would see that a nice bottom is forming at the current levels. Contrary to some analysts and compared to last summer, inventory (i.e. injection) will shrink this summer. I for one am glad to see over the average temp maps as that would translate into more than average use of natgas by utils. Unless you are sitting by a coal mine, using coal to produce power would be a loss. Seems like transportation industry will adopt natgas regardless the recent failed vote to provide transportation industry with a subsidy not because they want to save the natgas industry but because they know that natgas is and would continue to be cheaper than oil and provides them the opportunity to market themselves as 'green'.
I also expect that there would probably be a push on natgas appliances such as natgas dryers, stoves, etc. When more natgas vehicles hit the market, it is also very likely that local util companies will start to advertise solutions related to natgas fuelling. Do not underestimate the power of GE; if you were a student of political economy, you would know that GE is one of the pillars of American capitalism.
Add the above scenarios to production cuts (cuts will be more apparent during the injection period) + tight env controls + natgas vehicles hitting the market in a month or two (i.e. media attention) + a hurricane or two = low probability of seeing sub 2$ natgas.
In short, natgas is not dead, far from it, its regrouping to be the dominant energy of North America; a major bull in the making.