GREY:CLLZF - Post by User
Post by
aboutoilon Mar 17, 2012 10:34pm
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Post# 19686167
RE: Y/E results/No offer
RE: Y/E results/No offer The most discouraging thing about CLL is declining bitumen production. In last 4 years POD1 production dropped from above 9000 bbl/d to 6500bbl/d. Algar production is dropping faster then POD1 in first year of steaming. With no Capex money available for the expansion and no offers on the table we may be stuck around $1 for the rest of 2012.
Oilsands analyst Andrew Potter of CIBC World Markets said Con-nacher's results missed his and consensus estimates on cash flow per share because of lower than expected bitumen prices and a surprising miss from its refinery, where cash flow for the fourth quarter was actually lower than the previously released ( by previous CEO) number for October and November.
The second phase of Connacher's Great Divide steam-assisted gravity drainage project in northern Alberta came on stream in August 2010, giving the company 20,000-bpd bitumen production capacity.
Potter said both phases had impressive ramp-ups but have not maintained momentum. "Oilsand production utilization averaged just 68 per cent over 2011," he wrote. "So far 2012 shows no reprieve, with the segment producing . . . about a 63 per cent utilization rate."
UBS analyst Chad Friess said 2012 production guidance of 12,600 to 13,900 bpd was disappointing and "implies output at Great Divide has little hope of rising above the 13,000-bpd level." He added a budget of just $50 million this year suggests little growth will be achieved through investment.