metal price and junior correlation I tend to agree with your prognosis that this year it's different from 09 10 and 11 because everyone expects a big drop in may which means we may not see it....
On the other hand when the venture peaked in 2008 gold was half of what it is now and now the venture is half of what it was then, so there is a 4 times disconnect in the price of gold and the price of underlying equities. Different ways of figuring it out but i think the venture is pricing in 400 dollar gold right now.
anyone who invests in these things needs balls of steel, but when you do the down and dirty math double checking for errors, and you come up with mulit baggers and there is that sense of calm in your gut, you just need to go with it, don't think about it too much. Use the human brain and let the reptile brain stay in the recesses of your thoughts where it belongs, niggling a little, but harmless as it is small.
Good interview on Cramer today with CEO of Cliffs Natural Resources, states that as we move up the value chain in China from export and infrastrucutre to consumer spending stainless steel is the big winner. coupled with indonesian ore restrictions all these bode well for nickel.
the watched pot never boils but the impatient often sell before it gets good.