RE: live Avion always I was one of the lucky ones, and I bought another 40k shares at $1.05 on Thurs morning, now have 139k shares. I am willing to hold this one over the next year, there will come a time when the news blows over, and then we're back to focusing on what this company has to offer, which is a lot. This stock hitting $1.70 at some point in the year is almost a given, and it could go much higher.
I'm seeing a lot of posts saying that this stock is going below $1. I don't think that's going to happen. Let's not forget that this stock hit $2.57 in 2011, and was $1.80 just a month ago. I think the news that hit this week was already priced in.
The price of gold goes way up every year over the July-Sept months. Investors will anticipate this, and start loading up by June. Sure, it's only late March, but provided you don't mind parking some money for a few months, you're looking at a 40% profit (from $1.22 to $1.70) in the matter of months. I actually view this stock as safer than the greater market, given it is cheap now, and given the rest of the market has gone up quite a bit lately.
I don't think the quarterly results coming out this week will dazzle that much, but they will likely reassure investors re: the coup, which will help. They have stated production of 140-150k ounces for 2012, and have stated that they'll be at a run-rate of 200k ounces by the second half of 2012. This tells me that for Q1 production will still be at a run rate of around 100k.
This doesn't sound that thrilling short-term, perhaps you're thinking why put in money now. I would say that provided you don't mind a bit of risk of short-term fluctuations, now is the time, when there's fear. You are really buying on the cheap at these levels. I think even a month from now, we'll be solidly into the $1.40-$1.50 range, which has been the floor for the stock before the last couple of weeks.
Long-term, this company is going to really reward investors. Results from recent drilling were very strong. Longer-term, they're anticipating 400k-500k in annual production. That's about double what Semafo is doing now, and Semafo has a market cap of $1.41B. If we double Semafo's market cap, we would be at $2.82B. Avion currently has a market cap of
.537B. So, assuming they can hit 400k-500k production, Avion's market cap would increase over 5 times to give it a proper market cap using Semafo's market cap as guidance. Increasing their stock price by 5 times where it is now would mean it would hit $6. I realize this is simplistic, two different companies don't yield an apples to apples comparison, and Avion make need to raise some funds for exploration, but you get the idea - there is a lot of upside. Within 1-2 years, there's no reason that the stock shouldn't hit $3-$4. A 3+ bagger from these levels.
If things do happen to drop back to the $1.10 or so range, I'm just going to load up even more, and frankly, I think there will be a lot in the same camp. Thus, I really don't see that much risk at these levels.
Good luck to all!