RE: Any comments/analysis? What matters will be what the financials look like the second half of this year. Since productions is going to be increasing greatly, the current financials mean less to anyone who is following closely.
Based on current financials, Ithaca is probably not even worth what it's trading at. But if you know the story, you know that Athena's production and cashflow is what makes Ithaca a $3-$4 stock. Factor in expected future growth, and you know that Ithaca has $7 potential.
Reserve increase was good, though completely expected since we knew they'd have to factor in Cook. It's nice though because it helps justify a buyout price closer to $4 based on current 2P reserves.
Someone with some guts could still easily make a fortune here because you buy around $3 with the knowledge that when the buyout comes it'll be much closer to $4 --> instant profit.
Or, if the buyout doesn't come through, you hold for a year or 2 and when Ithaca hits 20,000 boepd it easily has $6-$7 potential.
There's always risk, and in the near-term there could be volatility, but in the next 2 years overall the upside probably outweighs the downside, even around the $3 level if you're a buyer here. Multiple chances of profit, high chance of buyout for 20-30% gain, high chance of 20,000 boepd in the next 2 years for 100% gain. Downside risk is if buyout doesnt happen, and production targets aren't hit.. In which case, I'd still expect this stock to be worth a bit more than it's currently at based on lowered production targets and current reserves.