RE: RE: RE: RE: R thiE: RE: ORKO meets with PAS on Hi tim_k,
Your post raised some interesting points. I was pleased to read that PAA had met with OK yesterday. I would have liked to have been a fly on the wall in the meeting ! My guess is yesterday's meeting would have discussed:
1) PAA's inability to meet the April 13th deadline and why;
2) the results of the Mining Plus resources update to be released shortly and possibly expressions of interest of other parties (in general terms);
3) the new July 13th deadline;
4) possible business combination.
I'm hoping the overall theme from OK's point of view is to demostrate to PAA that they better get moving if they wish to acquire OK and that time is running out soon.
In terms of your trading strategy I would be careful. Trying to time the anticpated sequence of events through an "in and out" trading strategy could lead you to missing the boat on a takeover premium. I agree that PAA will likely offer to takeout OK between April 13th and July 13th however, it is anyone's guess as to the specific day of offer. I'm of the opinion that if the release of the Mining Plus resource estimate is favourable, our share price heads north, the subsequent anticpated announcement of the delay will not bring the share price significabtly south. In my view, most investors in OK are focusing beyond April 13th, and will hold their shares. The trading volumes in OK are not demonstrative of that of some of the "day trader" favourites and as such I don't believe the share price will correct significantly after a delay announcement. I think once the Mining Plus results are released, yesterday's close will have been deemed a cheap entry point. Shares are only going to get more expensive IMHO.
Also, as you mentioned, silver could also buck the historical trend. Who knows, a QE3 announcement or even further hints of QE3 could bring some positive price action to support gold and silver. Just too many variables for me to risk unwinding my position.
GLTA longs
Carter.