Q1-12 Estimate for Cash Flow
COS pricing for their SCO from Mar 26 to Mar 31 was $88.90/bbl while WTI was $107/bbl on March 26th, a discount of almost $18/bbl. How to explain this when Bloomberg claims the current discount is around $5.00/bbl?
We are back to the same question. Is the $18 discount that COS got for SCO at the end of March reflective of the large discount quoted by Bloomberg about 2 months ago for SCO or was it the real market price on the 26th? Altior?
March production came in at 92,700 bbls/day and the average for the quarter was 108,300 bbl/d. The average price for the quarter was $98.91/bbl.
Based on the above info, revenue this quarter is estimated to be $975M, about $90M more than Q4-11. I am estimating cash flow from operations of 93¢/shr. The tricky part is the capex. Using ¼ of their full year capex for Q1-12 comes out to 71¢/shr. This leaves 22¢ of distributable cash for the divy. This means that COS will have to use about $40 M of their cash reserves to pay us the 30¢/shr this quarter.
The consensus cash flow estimate is 88¢/shr with a range of 64¢ to $1.02.
You can see the severe impact of the capex on the distributable cash. The current price of $88.90/bbl that COS is getting for their SCO is a bit worrisome if it were to continue throughout Q2-12.
Namsoc