RE: Dilution?? I have some quite complex excel workings behind my DD but at a high level I set forth the following for your consideration. In 2011 18,516 ozs of gold were sold at an average price of $1618 per oz. EPS and FDEPS were reported as 4cents and 3 cents respectively. My 2012 forecast at $1,600 av per oz after making assumptions on bonuses tax rates etc show sales at 33,360 ozs, this is at the higher end of the directors forecats with EPS and FDEPS on 6 cents and 4.5cents respectively and I have 40,000 ozs of sales in 2013 and 50,000ozs in 2014. Note I have assumed that the line of credit, plus monthly cash coming in and plus US$75 million from warrants and then options monies do not result in further gold during the 2012-2014 period. With purchase costs pretty well fixed per oz, other than some with inflationary clauses, the profit and cash generated is largely determined by the POG.
Turning to the dilution at December 31st 2011 including compensation warrants I have 331.7 million shares and fully diluted 465.2 million. Fully diluted, by my maths, if you owned 1% and rec'd a $1 million dividend after full dilution with unchanged earnings you would now own 0.71% and receive a dividend of $710,000. I'd say you got diluted by 29%.
You can see that if you extrapolate 2013 and 2014 gold sales and use the 465m shares the EPS just keep growing and at some point all that cash that's building is going to be invetsed and reap fruit.
So your concern is fully justified but the deeper analysis hopefully allays your fears. GLTA
PS: First quarter2012 will be out soon. Have a look...