Energold Drilling Corp EGDFF

RE: RE: RE: Definition of Illogical?

[ganja50]

Parkus--I am more aggressive than you on rev. and margins  keep in mind that there is tremendous momentum in this biz., a huge wind at their back.  Alot of rigs introduced in the middle of last year would have hardly registered in last yrs. revs. and earnings but will this year, plus all the new rigs.  And margins will be much, much higher.  Rates now are over $200/m.  Fred has said previously that this div. has an inherent 30% growth rate; I would expect meters drilled in the min. div to be around 35% higher than last yr.  I am modeling $220/m on average.  They could do 780,000 m at 40% margins.  Fred said margins in Africa are 60%! Say 69 mil in operating margins for the mineral division  I think energy and Dando will do 85 mil in sales at 22% margins.  After all, energy div. historically has done 50 mil.  It can easily do 60 now and Dando 25. Call that an additional 19 mil.  plus 69 equals 88 mil.  30 mil for admin., etc.  leaves 58.  Say 25% taxes and you have 44 mil.  I was not figuring fully diluted as I doubt anyone else will.  They could come in a little short of that with higher depreciation of energy, so maybe we should begin to look at cash flow.  But the 45 cents modeled by Fraser and the .60 average of other analysts is ridiculously low.  One of the big fans and biggest shareholders of EGD is Harris Kupperman, who is a money manager and who has an internet site called Adventures in Capitalism.  You should go there and read some of what he has written on the co.    Best, Ganja