RE: RE: RE: Some reasons Kensin: Are you replying to my post? Sorry, I wasn't responding to yours as I haven't even read it.
But in response to your post, let me just say that what you state is correct. However, I'm more interested in how the space in which companies that I invest in are affected by the macro events, such as those that you note. More specifically with met coal, I'm interested in the directionality of seaborne met coal price and how it affects the economics of NECC. Lets forget the one time anomaly in 2008 of $300+. Lets instead focus on the +/-20 year price trend in seaborne met coal prices. As an investor in this space, I want to know if the met coal price will trend down or up and at what pace. It's simple as that for me. From there, of course one looks at the specifics of the company.
As for China, I think they were largely responsible for the rise in met coal prices, especially in the last decade or so. By this I mean the rising prices were created by the marginal growth out of China. And I'm betting that their growth will continue to provide support for high (in historic terms) prices. Not to mention growth from Brazil and India.