Graphite set to go critical in 2012... Some relevant basic due diligence. Excerpt below copied from this blog: https://www.beatthemarketstockpicks.com/2012/01/graphite-set-to-go-critical-in-2012.html
Graphite… Set to go critical in 2012
Graphite is set to go critical in 2012. It is listed as being a critical metal by the EU because the commodity is vital in the greenspace revolution including a major component to electric cars. The Chevy Volt uses 30kg of graphite while Tesla’s Roadster requires over a 100kg of graphite to make. Graphite is the main component in Lithium Ion batteries and can require more than 15 times more graphite than they do lithium. This distant cousin of diamonds is set to go through the roof as affordable mainstream electric cars are now on the market with what is clearly the preferred choice for the battery of the future, at least the next 10 years anyway. Graphite’s qualities of being lightweight and a great conductor of electricity make it ideal for automobiles where shaving off pounds is important for the performance and efficiency of the vehicle. Tesla’s Model S leads the competition with a range of almost 500km per charge and a 3 – 5 hour charge time. With these type of stats and a price range that starts to makes sense for early adopters (Prius type customers), electric vehicles are about to make major inroads into the retail marketplace.
Demand for Graphite Could Double by 2020… Mines Needed!!!
Lithium Ion battery demand could add a million tonnes of demand to the market over the next 8 - 10 years. A majority of this demand is from the growing electric vehicle market is where a major portion of the incremental demand for graphite is seen to come from. Without incremental demand the industry is still expected to see strong growth. It is already a robust 1Mt per year industry and is expected to grow to 1.5Mt by 2020. Graphite has a strong industrial component and naturally tracks closely the demand of iron ore which also has strong demand projections over the next 15 years. With a minimal 500,000 tonne to 1.5Mt of demand to potentially fill over the next 10 or 15 years in all ranges of quality of graphite, there are several opportunities in the industry to build graphite mines in a sector that is slowly being starved for supply.
Estimates for the amount of mines needed to supply this growing market vary greatly depending on several factors including scalability of current projects, incremental demand etc… but graphite deposits tend to be smaller in scale therefore production is limited meaning investment will be needed in several new mines. Most graphite mines will be hard pressed to produce more than 50,000 tonnes of graphite a year. Northern Graphite’s operation at Bisset Creek 2% Cg slated for production in 2013 will produce less than 20,000 tonnes per year and is scalable to around 35,000 to 40,000 tonnes. You can do the math but with most companies producing between 10,000 tonnes to 40,000 tonnes per year, there is a big need for investment in mine development in this sector.
Don’t believe graphite is going critical? Just look at what the Chinese are doing, they control at least 70% of the supply of the material and have recently moved to impose a 20% export duty and a 17% value added tax on the vital material that is essential for powering a green future. The same developments that happened in the rare earth space in late 2009 and early 2010 are now happening in the graphite sector. When it became apparent that Li Ion battery technology was winning out, prices in the sector have shot up over the past year with premium large flake graphite going for $3000 per tonne with industry analysts expecting prices to rise further in 2012 until production outside of China can come online which will start mid-2013. China is doing everything they can to secure enough supply of this metal to meet their own electrification needs as China aims to be a world leader in electric vehicle market. Recently China formed a partnership with GM to collaborate on an electric vehicle that will be mass produced in China. One major reason that may have swayed GM in collaborating with Chinese authorities other than the lucrative Chinese market is that the Chinese will assure GM of security of supply of critical materials they need to build second generation Volts. If electric automobiles are adopted at even moderate rates, it will be tough for miners to ever keep up with demand in this industry. One key driver behind early adoption rates is peak oil theory and prices of fossil fuels are expected to steadily rise over this decade as peak oil nears.
There are many conditions that are coming together to create the perfect storm in the sector that could ignite a multi-year rally in these public companies exploring and developing graphite projects.
The Perfect Storm?
· Strong demand
o Steady industrial growth
o Strong incremental demand from green technologies
· Restricted Supply
o Chinese control 70% of the market
§ Declining Chinese quality and increasing mining costs
§ Chinese 20% Export Tax
§ 17% Value Added Tax
o Declining western nation graphite production