Case scenario CWV will cope with 2 mains scenario into the future :
Best Case Scenario
The situation calm down, they are not expropriated. In this case oil&gas companies operating in Argentina will be priced at a severe discount compare to if they were operating in a country where the risk is low. Junior oil&gas in Canada/US are priced at around 4-5 times Cash Flow now. Casimir expect a Cash Flow of $35 million (after merger) for CWV in 2013. Company traded in very high risk country like Venezuela, Nigeria, Yemen are traded at 1-2 times Cash Flow. You can have a look at Mart resources(MRT) operating in Nigeria, Harvest Natural operating (HNR) in Venezuela or Calvalley petroleum (CVI) operating in Yemen. They are all making big Cash Flow, no debt, good growth, a lot of cash in the bank but the market price them at 1 to 2 times Cash Flow because of the country risk.
If you apply the same multiple to CWV it should be valued next year at between 35 to 70 cents a share considering Argentina now entering to the category of "High risked country".
Worst case scenario :
They are expropriated so the company will be priced at the value of its cash so around 27 cents per share (taking into account the number of shares after the merger)
So worst case scenario it goes to the cash value (27 cents) and the best case scenario it is priced at 2 times Cash Flow next year so a target of 70 cents in 2013.
No wonder why the stock is collapsing. It is just price now in taking into account the country risk.
This is only my number so do your own.