Join today and have your say! It’s FREE!

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Please Try Again
{{ error }}
By providing my email, I consent to receiving investment related electronic messages from Stockhouse.

or

Sign In

Please Try Again
{{ error }}
Password Hint : {{passwordHint}}
Forgot Password?

or

Please Try Again {{ error }}

Send my password

SUCCESS
An email was sent with password retrieval instructions. Please go to the link in the email message to retrieve your password.

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Quote  |  Bullboard  |  News  |  Opinion  |  Profile  |  Peers  |  Filings  |  Financials  |  Options  |  Price History  |  Ratios  |  Ownership  |  Insiders  |  Valuation

Crown Point Energy Inc V.CWV

Alternate Symbol(s):  CWVLF

Crown Point Energy Inc. is a Canada-based junior international oil and gas exploration and development company. The Company’s exploration and development activities are focused in three producing basins in Argentina, the Austral basin in the province of Tierra del Fuego, and the Neuquen and Cuyano basins in the province of Mendoza. The Company’s projects include Cerro de Los Leones, Tierra del Fuego, and Chanares Herrados. The Company has a 100% working interest in the 101,208-acre Cerro de Los Leones Exploration Concession located in the Neuquen Basin. It has a 34.74% non-operated working interest in the Rio Cullen, La Angostura, and Las Violetas Exploitation Concessions in the Austral Basin of Tierra del Fuego, representing a total of 489,000 gross acres (169,880 net acres). The Company has a 50% non-operated working interest in the Chanares Herrados Exploitation Concession in the Cuyano Basin representing a total of 10,057 gross acres (5,029 net acres).


TSXV:CWV - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by oilandgas111on Apr 21, 2012 11:28am
244 Views
Post# 19819773

Case scenario

Case scenario

CWV will cope with 2 mains scenario into the future :

 
Best Case Scenario
The situation calm down, they are not expropriated. In this case oil&gas companies operating in Argentina will be priced at a severe discount compare to if they were operating in a country where the risk is low. Junior oil&gas in Canada/US are priced at around 4-5 times Cash Flow now. Casimir expect a Cash Flow of $35 million (after merger) for CWV in 2013. Company traded in very high risk country like Venezuela, Nigeria, Yemen are traded at 1-2 times Cash Flow. You can have a look at Mart resources(MRT) operating in Nigeria, Harvest Natural operating (HNR) in Venezuela or Calvalley petroleum (CVI) operating in Yemen. They are all making big Cash Flow, no debt, good growth, a lot of cash in the bank but the market price them at 1 to 2 times Cash Flow because of the country risk.
If you apply the same multiple to CWV it should be valued next year at between 35 to 70 cents a share considering Argentina now entering to the category of "High risked country".
 
Worst case scenario :
They are expropriated so the company will be priced at the value of its cash so around 27 cents per share (taking into account the number of shares after the merger)
 
So worst case scenario it goes to the cash value (27 cents) and the best case scenario it is priced at 2 times Cash Flow next year so a target of 70 cents in 2013.
 
No wonder why the stock is collapsing. It is just price now in taking into account the country risk.
 
This is only my number so do your own.
Bullboard Posts