RE: RE: Case scenario I think you are right nobody knows wether they will be expropriated or not. That is why I put 2 cases scenario : The best case scenario or the worst case scenario.
The point is even if they are not expropriated the market will price Argentinian oil&gas stocks as very high risk for few years so the valuation should be limited to 1-2 times Cash Flow. So a maximum potential for 2013 of 70 cents. In the worst case scenario CWV is worst 27 cents. So I guess the stock price will stabilize between those 2 prices up to we know what happens there. Within few months should CWV is not expropriated it should go around 70 cents and should CWV is expropriated it should go to 27 cents (the value of the cash after the merger).
Good luck to you.
O&G