RE: RE: Revenue Potential A different guess for Pennsaid.
Nuvo's recent presentation, slide 9, shows topical sales were $506 million in 2011.
It also shows Pennsaid, currently, at one-third of projected 2012 sales [admittedly lower than 2011].
I assume sales are down temporarily due to shortage of Voltaren Gel and will go back to the 2011 level so it could be that Pennsaid will hold its one-third share; if so, total Pennsaid sales could be around 506/3 = $168 million.
Another unknown exists. Previously sales grew about $50 million/year and may continue. If that happens then we should expect better sales figures for Pennsaid 2% as well as a general increase in demand for topicals as both coverage of, and doctors' experience with, topicals increases.
Then too OA affects nearly 27 million Americans, about 80% of whom have limitations in movement [which Pennsaid helps] as well as pain. And demographics suggests that baby boomers will increasingly become OA sufferers. So the market for Pennsaid 2% ought to be much higher than currently expected.