RE: RE: RE: How sweet it is! > Why don't you give the audience a heads up and tell us what your call is regarding the company's earnings.
LOL, since you are not going to hold anything against me, I'll say less than half of Q4.
So say 3c or 4c. a share.
I will be more than happy if they beat that, although I don't think that'll do the stock much good.
For what it's worth, I think the upcoming Q1 results will possibly be the worst of 2012 i.e. Q2 - Q4 will be better.
We may take another big haircut after Q1 results, but that should be the bottom, hopefully.
> You may want to also add a comment on the dividend forecast also.
I think the 18c. will hold, at least for now.
But there is a serious risk of a further cut later in the year, depending on how things go.
As long as they can keep the EPS above the same quarter of 2011, and don't issue any further equity, we might be able to plough through 2012 without any more pain.
> Ah hell...let's cut to the chase.......In your opinion...would you be a buyer or seller of GCL
> at this point in time?
I would be neither.
There is no reason to buy given the current performance of the company/stock.
I would not short sell it either because #1. a 9% yield is payable by the short seller and #2. you never know when unexpected news might come out that could move the stock significantly higher, such as the potential buyout of Prime Restuarants by Cara or a buyout of Colabor itself.
I am personally holding for now.
But if I were not a current holder, I would do nothing with this stock; there are scores of other opportunities out there.
Since you are not holding anything against me, the top 2 things that worry me about this company are:
#1. The management is still talking about potential acquisitions.
They are in no financial shape whatsoever to finance an acquisition of any kind - not even buying a small candy store.
The banking syndicate that holds the debt of this company will never allow it.
It worries me that management is so delusional.
#2. The fact that this company is struggling so much, when most of its competitors are not doing bad at all.
Sure, everyone is under pressure and these are tough economic times, but others are managing to get by.
These guys just don't seem to be able to execute.
If you read the 2011 annual report, there is that section about current economic situation (section 11).
They talk about the recession, consumer spending, and general economic conditions.
blah blah blah, excuses excuses excuses.
The funny part is that this section is being copied and pasted over and over again in each quarterly report for the last 2 years.
So, other than complaining and whining about the economic situation, they don't seem to have done much over the last 2 years.
And the worst part is that this whining about consumer spending isn't even true for their industry.
Canadian consumers are spending - and that's the problem.
Inspite of high household debt levels, consumers are spending a lot on discretionary items.
The problem is not that consumers aren't spending, the problem is that this company isn't getting a piece of that action :o)
I wonder what will happen if/when interest rates go up and consumers start cutting back discretionary spending substantially.
Anyhow, those are my thoughts.
If your avg. is $7.50 as you said, you aren't doing too bad.
If the stock stays at current level, another dividend or two and you will break even.
I have a long way to climb back up to my cost base.
I am at about $9.20.