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Bellatrix Exploration Ltd (Canada) BXEFF

Bellatrix Exploration Ltd is a Canada-based oil and gas company, engaged in the exploration, acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas reserves in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan. It primarily focuses on developing its two core resource plays, the Cardium and the Notikewin/Falher intervals in Western Canada. The Notikewin/Falher in Alberta's deep basin boasts abundant, liquids-rich natural gas with compelling economics. The Cardium is a highly e


GREY:BXEFF - Post by User

Comment by canoe2000on May 03, 2012 12:29pm
214 Views
Post# 19866839

RE: RE: RE: RE: CPG buys Cutpick, that makes BXE v

RE: RE: RE: RE: CPG buys Cutpick, that makes BXE v

OK. If they got $105K per flowing bbl for 65% of 5600 bboe/day of oil, or 3640 bbl/day X 105K/bbld = $382 mm

Subtract that from selling price of $425 mm to get $43 mm

Divide $43 mm by the boes of NG(35% of 5600 = 1960)  to get about $22,000 per flowing boe of ng.

This seems a reasonable split to me.

Now take BXE with 18,000 boe/day, with 40% being oil and liquids.  Thus we get about 7200 bbl/day.  Multiply that by $105,000 and we get $ 756 mm.  Add in NG at $22/boe to get another $237 mm.  Add in another $150 to $200 mm or so for the Duvernay, to offset any BXE debt get a total of about $1.0 billion sale price.  By my numbers that works out to a  selling price of  about $9.5 a share for 107 million shares.

What have I missed?

So a buyout is still OK by me.

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