The real numbers, no guessing
required, just take a look at Donnycreek's latest presentation:
https://donnycreekenergy.com/siteFiles/88/files/DCK_Presentation_Q1_2012_JK.pdf
See page 11, these wells cost on average $9 million to drill and complete, a good well like the current one for Donnycreek and CEX can have around 1 million barrels of oil equavalent over its life span, with the first 500,000 of that in the first 2 years. But compare those good wells to last weeks great well and see how they compare. A good well for the area is 8 million cubic feet per day of gas and 400 barrels per day of liquids. The result of such a well is a net present value of about $12 million with an internal rate of return of 135%. BUT now compare to last weeks well, the recent well is 8.3 cubic feet of gas AND 1,150 barrels of liquid, almost three times more liquid than the good well scenerio and that extra liquid is all profit. Assuming normal decline rates, that works out to an average extra 500 barrels per day for the first year which at $80 a barrel would be an extra $15 million in profit in the first year, this is a great well.
As for how many wells could they have, using the latest press releases from the companies, they have 16 adjacent sections and in the upper Montenay they can drill 2 wells per quarter section, thus a total of 128 wells can be drilled here. Even if they all only averaged out to a $15 million profit, the value would be $15 times 128 for a total value of $1,920 million, 25% to CEX, 25% to QEC and 50% to Donnycreek whose 3 letter symbol I cannot post as stockhouse thinks it is an obsenity. I mayself am thinking that Donnycreek with its current fully diluted market value of $14 million and potential value of $960 million is the steal of the century at the moment. But there is financing required and perhaps another PP at some point, but I just do not see how any money could be lost investing at current prices.