RE: RE: Worth the Gamble? For airlines, one of the quickest ways to get a picture of their health is EBITAR and cash/or cash equivalents on hand. AC is actually in not too bad shape, despite the terrible damage ACE's structure did to it the airline since 2003 (ie: de-capitialized the company into a hollow shell).
The markets hate the uncertainty of labor issues; let us not forget the pilots were actually locked out by the company. Bill C-33 is the only thing keeping the airline moving. The company and the pilots are at the negots table again which is a good thing..... C-33 also outlines the 90 day timeline for a new contract to be enforced come hell or high water.
I believe the pilots (unlike the other employee groups at AC) are the only ones that realize now is the time to position themselves for another round trip through CCAA, hence the problems of getting a contract. FWIW, the failed TA the pilots' union came up with a year ago was never recommended by its union, and was voted down resoundingly by the pilot group.
Short term however, with a settlement of contract issues and the olympics this summer, I too can see an easy double of the SP before the year is out. After that, I'm not too optimistic unless AC gets an upper managment suite and BoD interested in building an airline, not merely sustaining a cash cow for a select few. My money is still on the side-lines, but I'm interested and watching closely (obviously, otherwise I wouldn't be here).
Cheers