RE: RE: CGX Web Site I have been watching this board sometime now and as of late with a certain amount of chagrin and amusement. Chagrin because I too am a shareholder and have taken a nice little haircut on this play; amusement because while I agree with the sentiments expressed by you OIL Run as well as appreciating the very good homework unearthed by Misfit, I do find a number of posts made by others over the past few days somewhat hypocritical and illogical.
It wasn't very long ago, last week to be exact that many on this board were predicting that that Eagle Shallow would come up dry but that it shouldn't affect the share price by too much. Everyone spoke of how it was already priced in. When the unfortunate news was announced, it was like a bomb went off with everyone heading for the exits and Chicken Little screaming at the top of his lungs that the sky was falling. This often happens with respect to market sentiment, something that I have very little faith in, most of the time it is pure emotion at work. The market may get it right, but one can posit that it usually takes forever to do so...
How about a little more common sense here with some reference to the fact that wildcat wells have about a 10% chance of sucess. We knew that Eagle Shallow was unlikely to hit, sure it would have been fantastic, but let's not get emotional and completely forget that we didn't really expect it to hit did we? In light of this I think some on this board are freaking out and forgetting that the real play here is and has always been Jaguar. If you look back over the past couple of weeks I think one has to admit that virtually everyone was expressing this sentiment. Why now are so many people appearing to lose it on this board, when we came up dry on a well that we fully expected would probably be so? Not very logical one might argue. Sure it is unfortunate but that is the oil exploration biz.
Furthermore, while at first blush there seems to be a lot of truth to the suggestions that there appears to be some hanky panky going on with respect to the finances together with the unprofesional way that they have dealt with the departure of Hermiston. I prefer to take a bit more of a cautious approach and/or at least give the company a chance to further explain what the heck is going on before becoming the judge, jury and executioner. This is so, especially when we really haven't heard the full story as of yet. Some are suggesting that we may never will and that might be true but I would prefer to wait until the the AGM to make this determination. It could be very instructive and interesting, and perhaps all of the things that are being suggested by you Oil Run must be put in place but me thinks there is a little bit of knee jerk reaction happenning here. Maybe you are right here but I have learned in this biz not too judge too quickly.
The fact that the SP appears to be recovering a little bit lends credence to my argument that people have gone overboard in terms of their negativity. We still have a very good play happenning in Jaguar and while it is another calculated gamble, the calculation for Jaguar is quite a bit better than for Eagle Shallow from what I have been able to ascertain. I suppose what I am saying is that we are basically in the position we all expected to be in (less twenty million dollars) but I think people need to calm down a bit and view this whole thing a bit more rationally.
If we hit at Jaguar you all will completely forget about this latest episode, one can virtually assure that. On the other hand, if everthing you have noted in your post is unequivocally true Oil Run, then perhaps we should be pushing for these suggestions at the AGM. In either case I firmly believe that it is probably a good time to double down on the investment because if it goes it is going to go hardcore.