RE: RE: CGX Web Site Oil Run:
Agreed, the SP is the lowest it has been in three years but I thought I was relatively clear that I felt that people overeacted to the unfortunate news of the results for Eagle Shallow. My experience is that this overeactive behavior is not something new but an almost utterly predictable phenomenom. Note that from the low of .30 we are already back up to .37 and will most likely climb to at least around .50 within the next week or so. I frankly won't be surprised at all if it climbs back up to around .70 by the end of May and maybe even higher as the results for jaguar approach. At least that is my guess, but of course I could be completely out to lunch.
I do take some issue with your point about what warrants a cautious approach. One can make a very convincing argument that a 70 per cent drop in price in one day is PRECISELY the time that one should be "extremely" cautious about how to read what is happenning or what might happen down the line. I do not believe we have enough information yet to determine exactly what is going on. If you believe you do have enough information then presumably you should sell out immediately and recoup what you can. This is, after all, the time that nervous nellies throw the baby out with the bathwater, people jump out of buildings, commit hari kari, go running to mama and all told other such travesties because they are fearful of the future and can't control it.
My point it that it should be the time for calm reflection and a commitment to do one's best not to become irrational or emotional as most shareholders unfortunately do in these circumstances. The crash in 2008 should be a lesson that ingrained this in all investors minds, but I digress. Jumping up and down and screaming for change is not going to get you very far with out a well laid out realistic plan of action, indeed even that may not get you anywhere.
Unfortunately the reality is that we are not in a postiion to dictate terms and I for one don't want to sell out and move on precisely because I think the SP is undervalued at this point, primarily due to people's overeaction to the results at Eagle Shallow as well as some of the perceived if not actual shenanigans going on with respect to finances going on in the company. That is why I suggested that for me the appropriate action was to double down at this time. I managed to do so at 33 cents so hopefully things will improve from here on in.
I had simply asked the question, why is everyone freaking out about the Eagle Shallow results when virtually those same people were previously indicating that it was likely that Eagle Shallow might not pan out and that we are really in this for Jaguar? The answer is simple, people are irrational and market sentiment often goes way overboard and overreacts and then overcorrects. I think we are seeing a classic example of this.
I noted that it might be advisable to take the steps you outlined in an earlier email at the AGM but in reality I doubt any of those things will come to fruition until we see the results of Jaguar, or unless some of the larger shareholders jump on board and go to bat for us. Asking some really pointed quetions and heated follow up discussion at the AGM might help somewhat but that will be about the extent of what we can effectively do as minority shareholders.
Attack me for being a realist if it makes you feel better, but I think that will only be a rather feeble and pyrhic triumph. The only time you are going to truly feel better here is if we hit and that my friend is something you and I (and a New Board for that matter) will have absolutely no control over. It really looks like our destiny, at least for the short to medium term, is in Tullow's hands and at the very least they appear to be very capable hands at that.
Finally I would be very circumspect about judging someone according to oilfield experience or their business acumen. I think it was Boone Pickens or someone similar who said get people with good ole common sense and get rid of all the moronic MBA's in this country and we will progress like a rocket. Sometimes a university research scientist/teacher knows a lot sometimes not, I don't think we have enough information to judge whether he will do a good job in this situation yet. He might just be the rocket scientist and fresh approach that is needed here. sometimes the very best entrepreneurs are those with absolutely no preconceived notions of what to do with a business. At the end of the day however, your guess is as good as mine but one can point out that we certainly don't seem to have done too well with the classic expertise and business types running the company to date. My belief is that we will know if we have an excellent Chairman if he surrounds himself with a good and experienced team that can work together productively, because that is invariably what diferentiates a real winner. I am all for giving him a fair shot, and besides his connections may be of the most importance in this particular situation anyway.