money With some talk of financing on the board, let's take a look at 2 scenarios....one with a partner for the beginning of the 2nd half and the other without a partner on the garmian block in the foreseeable future (both with no O&G law). These cases will take us until the end of 2013.
In both cases, we will be closing the first half with about 17 million in cash. Not a lot but by no means desperate.
Case 1 (BIR announced for Q3)
If the partner is announced for Garmian starting in the 2nd half of 2012, we will receive roughly 55 million for costs incurred, bringing our cash to CAD 72 million. We would then split the profit oil for quarter 3 at 5000bpd (adding 10 million advance payment to the pot). Production is planned to ramp up to 8000bpd at the start of Q4 and we'll assume it to be stable for the rest of 2013 (adding 90 million profit next year). This is now at 172 million to close out 2013.
The expenses until end of 2013 (very rough..i'm no expert in drilling/engineering...any corrections would be welcome) are as follows:
K2 EWT- 20million gross
Kurdamir 3D seismic-15 million gross
K3 drilling (no testing)-65 million gross
Kurdamir Block TOTAL-50 million net to WZR
Garmian 3D seismic-25 million gross
Upper Bakhtiari shallow wells-25 million gross
Sarqala2 drilling&EWT-80 million gross
Hasira1 drilling &EWT-90 million gross
Garmian Block TOTAL-110 million net to WZR
Kurdamir&Garmian Total: roughly 160 million in costs and 170 million in cash...throwing in administrative costs and it's about break even. However, this scenario only assumes production from Sarqala 1. It is ignoring the very probable EWT production from Kurdamir 2, Mil Qasim, Sarqala 2, Hasira1 and the shallow Upper Bakhtiari wells. I'm guessing that total production (net to wzr) will be 20000bpd....not the 4000bpd used in this scenario.
Case 2 (no partner until 2013)
270 million net costs to WZR and 217 million cash....assuming once again no additional production. In need of financing, however, the likely scenario is that some or all of the new Garmian wells will be flowing during 2013 and profit from the EWTs would be 100% (roughly 36000 bpd net) to wzr and not split with their partner.