Fertilizer consumption could reach 34.8 million to
Consumo de fertilizantes pode atingir 34,8 milhões de toneladas em 2021
https://www.scotconsultoria.com.br/imprimir/noticias/24146
Fertilizer consumption could reach 34.8 million tons in 2021
by Jose Francisco CunhaSexta Monday, May 11, 2012, 14h59
ICONE, "Outlook Brasil 2022 - Projeções para o Agronegócio" indica as perspectivas para a oferta e demanda dos produtos agrícolas e uso da terra para o período de 2011 a 2022.">A study published by FIESP / ICON, "Outlook Brazil 2022 - Projections for Agribusiness" indicates the outlook for supply and demand for agricultural products and land use for the period 2011 to 2022.
Along with these predictions, it also indicates the impact that increased agricultural production will have on other segments such as infrastructure, transport and consumption of fertilizers. The following is a summary of some important aspects of the study.
Production of soy
Soybean production in 2021/2022 is projected to 96.9 million tons, 29% higher than in 2010/2011. This increase will be achieved mainly by an increase of 5.3 million hectares of planted area expected to reach 29.5 million hectares. Another contribution to achieve the projected production will be the expected increase of 5.4% in productivity that would reach an average of 3.28 t / ha.
Cotton Production
The projections for this crop indicate a stability to the area planted which shall not exceed 1.3 million hectares, but is expected to increase productivity by 25% and the production of raw cotton is expected to reach 2.3 million tons.
Production of corn
The projections indicate an increase in planted area, both in the first harvest could reach 9.1 million hectares (1.2 million higher than in 2010/2011) as the second season with a forecast of 6.9 million ha (1.0 million more than in 2010/2011). Thus, the expected increase in area is 2.2 million hectares to this crop and reach 16 million ha. The expected production for 2021/2022 will be 79.7 million tonnes, with forecast for domestic consumption and exports of 68.8 to 11.0 million tons. The average production expected in 2021/2022 is 4.95 t / ha.
Production of cane sugar
The forecasts paint a scenario of steady growth for the sector, with 55% increase in production of sugarcane-action & uacute; car, but will be guided mainly on the expansion in 43% of the area with the culture and little expectation for productivity will contribute only 8% increase. Of the total production is intended to 91% ethanol and sugar, being 65.1% for the ethanol and for producing sugar, 34.9% of volume.
Demand for fertilizers
Based on estimates of production and crop area, was the need of nutrients designed to meet the demand for Brazilian agriculture in 2021. In the sidebar is a summary, with a forecast 43% increase on the consumption of 2010 as indicated in the table below.
An analysis was made considering the planned investments to increase production of fertilizers, indicating a reduction in imports will be 56% in 2021 before a participation of 71% in 2010.
The soybean crop will remain the main consumer, with 33% of the demand for fertilizer continues to be followed by corn and cane sugar.
Personal Note: I do not agree with the projected consumption of nutrients, and low N and high P and K, and at variance profile the latest developments in fertilizer consumption.
Nitrogen
Still under pressure with the strong demand in the United States and that caused a difference between prices in U.S. ports relative to other regions, encouraging a continuous increase in the international market towards price parity.
The expectation now is for a price drop in July or August after the completion of fertilization of corn planting in the U.S..
Phosphate
The phosphate followed in the wake of the nitrogen and used it to climb a step. Currently prices are equivalent since the beginning of 2011.
While corn and soybeans can sustain these prices, other cultures have now reduced the prices should reduce demand and, with help in reducing economic activity and competitiveness of European countries. Thus, actions to increase prices should weaken in the short term.
Potassium
Among the biggest buyers of potash, Brazil should be more active. China has renewed his contract at a price of U.S. $ 470.00 CFR, India slows its purchases and promises to reduce them and the United States has high inventories and can buy when the opportunity is more interesting. Indications of international prices are holding steady and, except for the willingness of traders, the prices do not find support for significant increases in demand.
An important observation is that imports from Brazil are very low in the first quarter and reach only 4.06 million tons according to data from the MDIC. Thus, it was very good to have high stocks of the passage of years. Considering the necessity of total imports by Brazil to meet demand over 29 million tonnes a few months we will have difficulty in ports and increase in fertilizer costs in general. For this aspect, the anticipation of purchasing and transporting the products earlier remains an important strategy to reduce costs and ensure supply.