RE: 2012 Ebitda exit rate about $350 million Outstanding analyses.
Just to carry it a bit further, Poiseidon will average about 400 tanks for 2012.
At $600,000 of Ebitda per tank, that amounts to an annual Ebitda of about $240 million for 2012.
In other words, by the end of Q2 and most certainly by the end of Q3, we are going to see another upward revision in Ebitda to perhaps $230 million or more.
Id say more because , Poseidon is serving only a small proportion of the overall fracturing fluid handling market.
They have a number of large new customers in the "adoption" phase, in which a small number of tanks are used on a limited number of jobs.
Some of these customers have significant numbers of drilling rigs under contract, creating large scope for growth as they decide to integrate Poseidon tanks into entire regional operations and potentially additional regions.
The recent increase in Ebitda guidance was the 7th consecutive increase in a year which is a strong index in just how rapidly this technology is catching on in the oil patch.
Recurring revenues are rapidly approaching 50 % of total sales which provides conviction of that forward guidance will be met or exceeded.
Finally, they are just now beginning to make available their add-ons, which will increase the value of unit revenue generation in the second half of the year.
Other markets such as Columbia beckon while the Canadian and US markets are barely scratched.
For these reasons, the future fundamentals are very very bright, and a $30 share price by exit 2012 is not an unreasonable expectation.