RE: Numbers now on sedar The Q1 report is encouraging IMO with some indications of good things to come. Plus there was no new bad news!
Management have previously stated that the company should have a 2012 exit production of 3,000 boe/d. IMO they are expecting to get close to those levels by early Q4. In the Q1 report they say the 'target 2012 average yearly production rate is currently estimated at 2,000 boe/d.' The 'production for the first quarter of 2012 averaged 1,118 boe/d' and 'current net production for Exall is approximately 1,467 boe/d.' They also indicate that the Productive Capability in June 2012 could be 1,831 boe/d.
It appears as though the company will reach the half way point of the year without producing at the average of 2,000 boe/d meaning they have a lot of catching up to do in the second half. My interpretation of these figures is that the company will need to be producing at close to 3,000 boe/d for most of Q4. And this will be after allowing for overproducing wells that have to be shut in and for depletion on the current producing wells.
I expect to see news of a number of high producing wells in the next few months. Maybe we will be back at $2.00+ by the end of Q3. All of the above assumes that management has learnt a lesson and has stopped over-promising and under-delivering.