buy before conference call 2012 was a pretty good year for ctw, lots of orders
"A summary of units sold since the start of 2010:
JUNE 28, 2010: 2 to BP Wind
JULY 20, 2010: 1 to enXco
SEPT 1 , 2010: 47 (over 4 years) to AXYS Technologies
MAY 12, 2011: 20 to TransAlta
MAY 16, 2011: 1 unit to Illinois Institute of Technology
JUNE 1, 2011: 1 unit to Kruger Energy Port Alma
JUNE 6, 2011: 6 units to Invenergy Wind LLC
JUNE 6, 2011: 6 units to Boralex
JUNE 13, 2011: 58 (over 5 years) to AXYS Technologies (update to last agreement)
JULY 4, 2011: 1 unit with TechnoCentre éolien (not a sale but agreement)
AUG 25, 2011: 1 unit leased to unknown manufacturer
FEB 6, 2012: 5 units Saturn Power (outfits entire wind farm ie no trial)
MAR 19, 2012: CTW outsources production to Sanmina-SCI
Total: 43 units sold + agreement for 58 more + follow on orders thay may be coming in the future.
From Q1 2011 conference call guidance was:
2011: 45 units
2012: 600 units
2013: 1000+ units
Some of my own assumptions/projections:
Global wind market size of 940,000 MW by 2025 (11.6% CAGR from 2010) [source below *]
Global wind market size as of 2010: 188,100 MW installed [source below *]
Assume average turbine size 2MW (ie 94,000 turbines installed in 2010)
Assume 10% of market captured. Market growing at 11.6%. (there will be competitors)
Assume no portion of existing market only new turbines (conservative)
Ramp up to 10% of total market share
2014: 3,000 units
2015: 5,000 units
2016: 20,000 units
Continue to get 10% market share and 11.6% market growth
2017: 20,266 units
2018: 22,617 units
2019: 25,241 units
2020: 28,169 units
2021: 31,436 units
2022: 35,083 units
By 2016 20,000 units sold at $.125M each = $2500M revenue
Assume 10% net profit margins = $250M net income
Assume p/e of 10 (since growth rate is around 10 ie PEG = 1) = market cap of $2500M ($2.5B) in 2016
$2500M / 150M (fully diluted) shares = $16.66 price per share
$16.66 /
.15 = 111 X in 5 years!
To make it more conservative:
Assume due to competition and economies of scale selling price is reduced to $62,500 / unit
Reduces share price in 2016 to $8.33 or 55 X in 5 years!
Remember CTW traded at $2/share 2 years ago when the outlook was much less clear.
Let me know what you think please.
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reposting this. thanks for that insight on how fast this company is growing and generating huge revenues."
TSX News has a 70 cent target for CTW.