RE: share price
I posted this yesterday and it answers your question but I welcome anyone who disputes these figures. It would be a good idea to discuss this as it may serve as a guide if and when we hit at Jaguar.
If Jaguar hits, our 25% should translate into 300M barrels of oil which at $4 per barrel would be $1.2 Billion in MC or $3 minimum. After that you add an increased chance of success at Eagle Deep (and possibly the higher targets if Repsol had success with them on the way to Jaguar) and the value that brings and our share price could be $5-10, possibly much higher.
Gustavson in 2008 gave us a 20% chance of success. Since then, there was more Turonian success in Africa and of course at Zaedyus. These successes, especially Zaedyus should increase our chances substantially. Add to that the strong polical statements and training and addition of a strong board member and I think it would not be impossible for our chances of success to approach 50%. With Repsol and Tullow driving the drill, we cannot ask for better partners either.
To expand on Eagle Deep, the value there will also change depending if a deal is done before or after Jaguar is revealed. If the deal is done before, then we will be able to plan accordingly. If no deal is struck before, there are lots of scenarios. Here is one that I think makes sense: Assuming our share price moves to $3, we issue 40 million share for $120M. We clean up our balance sheet, that would probably knock off $20M leaving us $100M. We JV for Eagle Deep 50/50 (easy scenario, would probably be more like 40-30-30) and we get them to foot $100M and we foot $40M. If we hit there, that would give us 50% of 2.5 Billion barrels of oil or 1.25B barrels of oil. At $4 that would be 5 Billion dollar market cap on top of our 1.2 giving us 6.2B over 400M shares for $15.50 per share.
Just spit balling here, feel free to tear this to shreds!
G.